Crude Oil Analysis: Oil Waivers Raises Risk of Key Support Break

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Rouhani pushed back against the upcoming sanctions, claiming America will reveal itself as guilty of unlawful actions in just a few days.

On the one hand, it's unclear how much Iranian oil will really be removed from the market, considering that Iran has already started to switch off transponders on board of some of its cargoes, although ship-tracking data on the tankers that can be tracked shows that Iranian oil exports are falling, but not as steeply as the market and analysts were expecting just a month or two ago.

India, the world's third-biggest oil consumer, has imported about 22 million tons of crude oil from Iran in 2017-2018 and plans to raise that to about 30 million tons in 2018-2019.

Iran has no fear about new USA sanctions due to take effect in coming days, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani was quoted as saying on Wednesday.

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The United States is now in a race with Russian Federation as top producer. China's imports from Iran fell by 34 per cent in September from the year-ago period, official Chinese customs data showed. The National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) has reportedly leased some storage capacity at Dalian.

The waivers "look likely but not yet formally decided", a government official told The Hindu, indicating that the final word rests with U.S. President Donald Trump who must sign them before November 4. "Even if it's temporary, concerns over a supply glut are weighing on prices as Saudi Arabia, Russia and the US all increase production".

"Our goal remains to get to zero oil purchases from Iran as quickly as possible". But we are prepared to work with countries that are reducing their imports on a case-by-case basis.

Oil prices climbed for the first time in three days on Wednesday, rising around 1 percent ahead of the start of US sanctions against Iran next week and as stock markets clawed back some of the losses they racked up this month.

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Indian oil companies have been allowed to continue importing about 2.5 million tons of Iranian crude per month until March, sources familiar with the matter told the Economic Times.

Meanwhile, Russia raised crude and condensate output to a record of nearly 11.41 million barrels a day in October, according to a government official, who asked not to be identified.

The concessions have reportedly sparked outrage among U.S. officials who take a hardline attitude towards Iran, even causing White House National Security Advisor John Bolton to decline to participate in the sanctions rollout on November, 4.

India, which is Iran's second-largest customer for oil, has said it can not immediately replace its Iranian imports and is seeking a waiver, while Turkey has also sought an exemption from the U.S. Treasury Department.

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