European Union to grab biggest share from US-China trade war

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The study found that European exports will grow by $70 billion, while Japan, Canada and Mexico will see exports increase by more than $20 billion each. But I don't blame China for taking advantage of us, I blame our leaders and representatives for allowing this travesty to happen.

The Chinese side agreed last week at a meeting with representatives of the United States in Washington to include issues related to hacker attacks on U.S. companies in the list of topics for discussion at the trade negotiations, The Wall Street Journal reported citing a source at the USA presidential administration.

"Tonight I am also asking you to pass the Reciprocal Trade Act, so that if another country places an unfair tariff on an American product, we can charge them the exact same tariff on the exact same product that they sell to us", he said.

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Amid tit for tat tariff hikes between Washington and Beijing, trade is being diverted and a handful of countries will capture a slice of the giants' exports, said the report by the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) on Monday. They are also - as seems to nearly always be the case with the China trade conflict - embodied by soybeans.

"There'll be currency wars and devaluation, stagflation leading to job losses and higher unemployment and more importantly, the possibility of a contagion effect, or what we call a reactionary effect, leading to a cascade of other trade distortionary measures", Coke-Hamilton said.

The IIF study also found that the tariffs had done little to reduce the US bilateral deficit with China, amid retaliatory duties from Beijing and "a large reduction in China's imports from the U.S". But because the magnitude and duration of tariffs is unclear, Brazilian producers have been reluctant to make investment decisions that may turn out to be unprofitable if the tariffs are revoked.

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Another worry is that more countries may join the fray and that protectionist policies could escalate to a global level.

The trade war will also have a number of negative effects on global trade, especially within certain markets, the UNCTAD said. Other countries set to benefit from the trade tensions include Australia, with 4.6 per cent export gains, Brazil (3.8) India (3.5), Philippines (3.2) and Vietnam (5), the study said. That's because economies in the bloc are globally competitive and have the most potential to ramp up their exports, the report said. Tariff increases penalize not only the assembler of a product, but also suppliers along the chain.

That impact of the retaliatory tariffs on USA exports, the IIF researchers said, would be the focus of one of their next studies. U.S. firms would capture just around 6% of the $250bn of Chinese exports subject to United States tariffs, while Chinese firms would retain about 12%. The 10% tariffs were initially due to rise to 25% in January 2019.

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